the september report, my predictions!

for a long time now, i wanted to write about my expectations for the september report by General Petraeus. unfortunetly, most of my predictions are already becoming true:

1. the report will highlight military success.
and there even was some, much less than expected (and necessary!), though. the number of civilians killed might be slightly down. number of attacks is similar or higher than before. violence seems mostly to have been shifted, not removed.

but the real problem with this aspect is: we sent in an additional 30000 US troops. that is nearly a 25% increase! of course this would have an effect. looking at some numbers it becomes obvious, that we need at least another 60000 to get violence in Iraq to an "acceptable" level.

2. the report will claim some political progress
the US will try to force iraqis to at least attempt a vote on one of the laws. (oil, most likely)
the political process unfortunetly has become much worse lately. so this a forced law will lead to another debacle, like the constitution did.

3. the Anbar progress will take ahuge place in the report.
as i wrote before, i don t believe that forming militias is progress.

4. future action: slowly remove troops.
Bush and Co will have to face reality. a majority of americans (and of US MPs of both parties) wants troop numbers reduced. the reduction of course will not come in real action, but mostly in promises. a tiny short term reduction. a bigger reduction next year (when keeping this force level up will become difficult for the US military anyway) and prospect of a huge reduction AFTER the elections.

5. don t expect any hard numbers!
oil production? electricity delivered? numbers of attacks, violence death? the report will contain pretty little of this. and those that get in, will be carefully chosen.

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the LATimes has an interesting piece on this today:

The expected recommendation would authorize U.S. commanders to withdraw troops from places that have become less violent and turn over security responsibilities to Iraqi forces.

a rather nice variant. "reduction" inside Iraq. followed by movement to bases "at the border to kuwait", perhaps? plenty of room to move!

a nice development is, that we might not even hear his recommendations:

The senior officer in Baghdad said the military was still debating whether Petraeus should make his detailed strategy recommendations to Congress in an open or closed session.

oh, and of course the General isn t writing the report. the whitehouse is.

Despite Bush's repeated statements that the report will reflect evaluations by Petraeus and Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, administration officials said it would actually be written by the White House, with inputs from officials throughout the government.

nice.

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Tomdispatch has an enormous amount of numbers on Iraq. check it out!


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i joined a debate on Billroggio today.

he made the claim that

prison population rises as almost 3,000 foreign fighters are detained.

but his source only speaks of 3000 foreign prisoners, not foreign fighters.

bad day for Iraq

several massive car bombs killed scores in the kurdish north.

At least 175 people were killed when three suicide bombers driving fuel tankers attacked residential compounds home to the ancient minority Yazidi sect in northern Iraq on Tuesday, an Iraqi army captain said.

remember, kurdistan is supposed to be the most peaceful part of the country.

at the same time, an important bridge leading north from Baghdad was finally completly destroyed.

Meanwhile, a truck bomb exploded on a bridge north of Baghdad Tuesday, killing 10 people and cutting an important route between the capital and northern Iraq.

remember, this bridge was bombed before. the inability of the US and iraqi military to prevent secondary attacks against high profile targets (samarra mosque..) is threatening the country.

the same article mentions important hostages taken at the oil ministry:

Also on Tuesday, a deputy oil minister was kidnapped by armed men at his home in the Oil Ministry compound in eastern Baghdad, according to Oil Ministry spokesman Assem Jihad. Abdel Jabar al-Wagaa, the senior assistant to Oil Minister Hussain Shahristani, was taken with several other ministry staff members, Jihad said.

The abduction was carried out by gunmen wearing Iraqi security force uniforms who entered the compound late Tuesday afternoon in more than a dozen official vehicles, according to the spokesman.

again, iraqi security forces are incapable of providing protection for even a couple of sites!

meanwhile it looks as if the 15 months tour would stay for a while:

U.S. soldiers deploying to Iraq and Afghanistan will be facing the extended 15-month deployments until at least next June, a top Army commander said Tuesday.

15 months at war, 12 months at home. in those 12 months, you have to spend your holiday, and all training courses to further your career. and the unit needs to bring their equipment and training on a high level again. sounds impossible? it is!

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have a look at this nice fact check about a claim by Obama:

As of Aug. 1, the AP count shows that while militants killed 231 civilians in attacks in 2007, Western forces killed 286. Another 20 were killed in crossfire that can't be attributed to one party.

"they hate our freedom". you bet.

military propaganda success

the recent O´Hanlon and Pollack editorial on the progress in iraq turns out to be mainly based on military propaganda. i m not suprised

But to establish their credibility as first-hand witnesses, O'Hanlon and Pollack began their Op-Ed by claiming, in the very first sentence: "VIEWED from Iraq, where we just spent eight days meeting with American and Iraqi military and civilian personnel. . . . " Yet the overwhelming majority of these "Iraqi military and civilian personnel" were ones hand-picked for them by the U.S. military

US army recruiting, part II

some more information on current recruiting trends:

waivers for criminal past are on the rise:

With less than three months left in the fiscal year, 11.6 percent of new active-duty and Army Reserve troops in 2007 have received a so-called "moral waiver," up from 7.9 percent in fiscal year 2006, according to figures from the U.S. Army Recruiting Command. In fiscal 2003 and 2004, soldiers granted waivers accounted for 4.6 percent of new recruits; in 2005, it was 6.2 percent. -International Herald Tribune

at the same time, high school diploma is more and more becoming an exception, rather than the norm:

In 2006, the number of traditional high school graduates recruited by the Army dropped to 73%, from 84% a year earlier, according to National Priorities Project, a research group that analyzes federal data. The military's goal is 90% high school graduates — a benchmark last met in 2004.

here s another interesting post on the subject, looking at some "special use" of statistics and the influence of the war on the military:

In 2005 the Army promoted 97 percent of all eligible captains to major, an increase from the prewar norm of 70-to-80 percent. A Department official told The Los Angeles Times: "Basically, if you haven't been court-martialed, you're going to be promoted to major."

US army recruiting

will this army win the war in Iraq? i have some doubts. but see for yourself:

Despite spending nearly $1 billion last year on recruiting bonuses and ads, Army leaders say an even bolder approach is needed to fill wartime ranks.Under a new proposal, men and women who enlist could pick from a "buffet" of incentives, including up to $45,000 tax-free that they accrue during their career to help buy a home or build a business.

WaPo has a huge list of new ideas. apart from massive money, here s what they do to make young (lol <42) people join:

Among the changes that have helped attract more recruits:

_ Increasing to $20,000 the bonus for troops who join by Sept. 30 and leave for boot camp within a month.

_ Raising the enlistment age to 42.

_ Allowing recruits to come in with non-offensive tattoos on their hands and neck.

_ Offering a $2,000 bonus to Army soldiers who refer a new recruit.

_ Enlisting recruits who don't meet weight standards and must trim down their first year.

_ Advertising that targets potential recruits' parents.

_ Increasing the number of recruits with general education diplomas rather than regular high school diplomas.

_ Creating a more pleasant boot camp environment.

_ Sending "gung-ho" soldiers fresh from boot camp or war zones back to their hometowns to visit old friends and schoolmates to promote the Army.

_ Increasing to more than 15 percent the number of Army and Army Reserve troops given waivers for medical and moral reasons or for positive drug and alcohol screen tests.

and they missed the quorum in June. let s see.

July WORST month. again.

i like how Juan Cole dispelled the myth about a military improvement of the situation in Iraq:

Deadliest July Yet for US Troops;
23% Rise in Iraqi Deaths in July;

t will be pretty hard to fake success under these conditions in september. wanna bet this government is gonna try it anyway???

it is NOT "we"!!!!

well, good news first. some realistic assessment of Iraq from Mr. Gates:

"I just think in some ways we probably all underestimated the depth of the mistrust and how difficult it would be for these guys to come together on legislation, which, let's face it, is not just some kind of secondary thing," Gates said aboard his plane en route to Washington.

i did NOT underestimate the problem. neither did i think that iraq had nukes before the war. and i didn t think they would give them to al-qaeda.

YOU were wrong. not "we". simple fact.