Saturday, June 2, 2007

there is a reason, why i start this blog today and i hope that the future will provide an opportunity to write about it. but for the moment, i ll just try to take a short look at some recent developments.

there is good news from Iraq. the "Anbar Salvation Council" has appeared as the grand new hope for an improvement to the security situation. similar organisations are forming all over Iraq.

and yes, in the short term the group will provide help for the US forces in the country. attacks in Anbar are down, which is good news. for the moment.
i do believe, that the Sunni tribes who joined the group, will bring down the number of attacks against US forces significantly. and yes, the numbers of reported incidents of violence against civilians will drop as well.

but in the long term, the effect will be a different one. the local tribe will provide the local police. and local military recruiting is mainly based on local tribes as well.

in the long term, this will not work out. what will happen can be seen in Afghanistan, where we still suffer from our deals with the warlords.

the same Sunni tribes, who fight against Al-Qaeda today, will turn against Shiis and Kurds tomorrow. with the weapons, training and authority tat we provided to them.


two small additions:

The number of civilians killed in Iraq jumped to nearly 2,000 in May, the highest monthly toll since the start of a U.S.-backed security crackdown in February, according to figures released on Saturday.
the number of civilians who died, was highest again in may. there is always a spike in may, but the fact that the "surge" could not prevent you, tells you a lot about its nature.
(i will write extenisvely about civilian casualties in a future post)

From south and north, Iraq's Kurdish region felt pressure from two sides Saturday, as saboteurs bombed a vital bridge link to Baghdad, and Turkish troops stood arrayed to the north for a possible cross-border strike, a move Iraq's prime minister warned against.
watch out for the north. big things will happen there this year, as the referendum draws nearer. the US is evacuating civilians at the moment..

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sod said...
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