as i predicted earlier, Bush will try to claim success, in the september report by Petraeus. most of this will not be based on facts, but there is only ONE decisive point among those: political progress.
Bush needs to pass a law (ahm, make iraqis do that, that is..), to claim success. he s aiming for the oil law. and i m rather sure now, that he will achieve this. there are several indicators about this plan:
1. new iraq coalition
a new coalition, made up of Shiis and Kurds. both groups favor strong regions and an oil law, favoring those who produce the oil.
this coalition will not oppose the law and has enough votes to pass it.
2. bring in some sunnis
to give some "democratic touch" to the whole affair, Bush (ahm Maliki) is trying to bring in some sunnis.
the model for this part, is the "iraq islamic party" scam on the referendum:
The IIP led a large-scale public campaign urging Iraqis (especially the Sunnis) to vote against the constitutionBush does not care about opposition on the oil law, some of it even coming from the Author of it!referendum in 2005. However, two days before thereferendum took place, the IIP announced its support for a "yes" vote, following a deal with the members of the Iraqi Transitional Government whereby the newly elected Iraqi National Assembly would consider amendments to the constitution in 2006. [2]
pushing the oil law will most likely lead to a collapse of the Anbar progress. (unless Bush manages to buy of quite a lot of local leaders, like with the IIP.)
so the timeline needs to look like this: the law needs to be accepted short before the Petraeus report and must contain some vague proposal to future amendments. (as the constitution did)
this move will be enough to cover the complete failure of the surge all over Iraq, from baghdad
to Basra neither one of these towns is in control of Coalition forces at this moment.
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